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美联储加息25个基点,美股暴跌黄金跳水▄■▓!全球股市汇市又要遭殃

    中国基金报记者 汪莹 张燕北今天凌晨,全球迎来大消息,美联储年内第四次加息落地▄▓!美联储如期加息明年预期加息从三次降为两次北京时间12月20日凌晨3点,美联储发布FOMC利率决议声明:将美国联邦基金利率调升25个基点至2.25%-2.5%区间▓█,实现年内第四次加息。这是美联储2015年12月开启本轮加息周期以来第九次加息,也是自1994年以来首次在股市下跌的情况下收紧货币政策█■▄。美联储仍坚持如预期加息,但降低了明年加息预期次数,从9月会议时的3次调整为2次███,预计2019年的经济和通胀增速都略低于此前预期。本次美联储会后声明语气有所软化,但并非完全鸽派▓▓,仍表示进一步加息是适合的,称经济前景的风险大致平衡,将超额准备金率从2.20%上调至2.40%▄■▄,维持每个月资产负债表缩减幅度在500亿美元不变。劳动力市场持续表现强劲,经济活动强劲增长■■■。就业增长近几个月保持强劲,失业率处在低位。家庭支出继续强劲增长▄■▄■,而商业固定投资的增长与今年早些时候的较快速度相比有所缓和。长期通胀预期指标总体而言几乎未变。据华尔街见闻翻译▓▄▓▄,12月声明全文如下,括号内蓝色字体为此前11月声明的说辞,红色为12月新增或修改部分▄▓:11月(9月▓█▄■)会议以来,FOMC得到的信息显示,劳动力市场持续表现强劲▄■▓,经济活动强劲增长。就业增长最近几个月平均保持强劲,失业率处在低位(下滑▄▓)。家庭支出继续上涨和商业固定投资从今年早些时候的快速增长后放缓。同比来看▓█,整体通胀和剔除食品和能源价格的通胀接近2%。长期通胀预期指标总体而言几乎未变。与美联储法定职责相一致█■▄,FOMC委员会旨在促进就业水平最大化和价格稳定。委员会认为(预计)███,联邦基金利率目标区间进一步的一些(some)上升与经济活动的持续扩张、强劲的劳动力市场以及中期对称接近2%的通胀目标相一致▓▓。委员会认为,经济前景的风险大致平衡(看来大致平衡)▄■▄,但将继续关注全球经济和金融进展,并评估它们对经济前景的影响。基于劳动力市场环境和通胀已有的表现及未来的预期■■■,委员会决定,将联邦基金利率的目标区间上调至(维持在)2.25%-2.50%(2%-2.25%) ▄■▄■。至于判断未来联邦基金利率目标区间进一步调整的时间和规模,委员会将评估,相对于就业最大化目标和2%的对称通胀目标▓▄▓▄,实际与预期的经济条件如何。在评估过程中,委员会将考虑各种信息▄▓,包括劳动力市场环境的指标▓█▄■、通胀压力和通胀预期指标、金融和国际形势发展的数据等。FOMC货币政策会议中投票赞成者包括▄■▓:FOMC委员会主席美联储主席鲍威尔;委员会副主席(纽约联储主席)威廉姆斯 (John Williams Vice Chairman▄▓);(里士满联储主席)Thomas I. Barkin;(亚特兰大联储主席▓█)Raphael W. Bostic;Michelle W. Bowman(美联储理事)Lael Brainard、委员会副主席 克拉里达(Richard Clarida█■▄);(旧金山联储主席)Mary C Daly(堪萨斯城联储主席███)Esther L. George;(克利夫兰联储主席)Loretta J Mester和(美联储副主席▓▓)Randal K. Quarles。评论:美联储并非完全鸽派对于此次加息声明▄■▄:Oxford首席美国经济学家Gregory Daco评论称,FOMC的声明是“鸽派加息”■■■,但没有市场预计的那么鸽派;贝莱德策略师Rosenberg也表示,市场原本期望美联储更显鸽派▄■▄■;摩根大通全球首席策略师称,美联储的声明总体上不错,鸽派加息对市场是积极的▓▄▓▄;股市的下跌反映的是战术交易和算法,而不是其长期投资战略;外媒评论▄▓,美联储如期加息25个基点▓█▄■,但预计明年加息次数将减少,并暗示在金融市场动荡和全球经济增长放缓的背景下,政策的紧缩周期正接近尾声▄■▓。尽管美联储确实下调了未来还需要加息多少次的预测,但美联储并非完全鸽派。六名美联储官员预计2019年加息三次▄▓。美联储在声明中重申,预计还会进一步加息——一些经济学家此前认为,美联储将从声明中完全删除这一条款▓█。相反,美联储补充称,它“判断█■▄”需要“进一步”加息。略微下调2019年的经济增速和通胀预期投票结果显示███,没有人反对加息,但各委员的估计“点阵图”显示▓▓,委员之间存在一些分歧。6个成员仍预计明年将有3次加息,低于9月的9个▄■▄,当时官员们最后一次发布了他们的预测。除了对利率的温和估计,该委员会还略微下调了对GDP和通胀的预测■■■。目前预计,2018年全年GDP将增长3%,较9月下降0.1个百分点▄■▄■,2019年将增长2.3%,下降0.2%。不过▓▄▓▄,官员们将长期预估从9月的1.8%上调至1.9%。不过,总的来说▄▓,美联储官员对经济增长并不担心▓█▄■。今年GDP平均每季度增长3.3%,亚特兰大联邦储备银行预计第四季度将增长2.9%。虽然市场担心美国可能会受到全球经济放缓的影响▄■▓,但联邦公开市场委员会的声明并没有显示出多少担忧。官员们继续把经济增长描述为“强劲增长”▄▓,而对经济活动其它部分的描述也保持不变。经济预测摘要确实指出,整体通胀率的增长速度预计将低于9月份的估计▓█,从2018年的2.1%下滑至1.9%,从2019年的2%下滑至1.9%。长期预期仍为2%█■▄。此外,2019年失业率预估中值持平于3.5%,而2020年则由3.5%上调至3.6%███。长期失业率预估由4.5%下降到4.4%;2019年PCE和核心PCE通胀的中值预估分别下降0.1个百分点至1.9%和2%。鲍威尔新闻发布会▓▓:美联储决策不受政治考量影响美联储宣布年内第四次加息后,美联储主席鲍威尔举行新闻发布会。鲍威尔还称▄■▄,联储决策不受任何政治考量影响。联储官员现在认为,经济更有可能符合明年加息两次的步调■■■。利率路径有很高不确定性,政策不是设定的,未来数据将决定▄■▄■。美联储主席鲍威尔新闻发布会看点:1、人们可能对如何描述2019年FOMC货币政策有不同看法▓▄▓▄。通胀趋势让美联储在未来保持耐心,每年举行的八次货币政策会议上都有可能采取行动。不确定性的程度相当高▄▓;2▓█▄■、美国经济已经在过去一年强劲增长。经济趋弱的证据包括海外经济增长迟滞和金融市场波动;3▄■▓、美国临近年底的通胀比预期的更加受抑。我尚未宣布实现匀称的通胀目标;4▄▓、金融条件收紧。长期美债收益率下滑与规避风险的形势相一致。关注的关键性风险包括英国脱欧▓█、意大利与欧盟谈判预算。5、不希望大幅调整银行业的资本水平█■▄。实录如下:加息后市场反应强烈道指900点大震荡美元指数:加息决策公布前███,美元指数因鸽派加息的预期而走低,一度跌超0.5%,触及10日低位96.55▓▓;加息决策公布后,美元指数短线上扬,逼近97大关▄■▄,之后一路升逾97。美债:加息决策公布前半小时■■■,美10年期国债收益率一路飙升,3点前触及当日最高点,报2.861%▄■▄■;加息决策公布后,10年期美债收益率跳水下跌,最低报2.75%▓▄▓▄。美股:隔夜美股三大指数平开后迅速走高,午盘前均涨超1%▄▓;加息决策公布后▓█▄■,三大股指均跳水走低,此后持续下挫。截至收盘▄■▓,美三大股指续创一年多以来新低,标普500指数下跌超1%;纳斯达克指数跌幅约2%▄▓;道指跌超300点,盘中振幅近900点。黄金▓█:在加息决策公布前,现货黄金涨幅扩大至0.7%或8.50美元,最高站上1258美元/盎司█■▄,随后交投1252美元。COMEX2月黄金期货最高涨0.5%,报1260美元/盎司███,升穿200日均线;周三收涨0.2%,报1256.40美元/盎司▓▓,创今年7月以来收盘新高。加息公布后,现货黄金跌破1250美元关口▄■▄,最低触及1242美元。彭博社分析称,金价已经打破了过去几次加息前的变动规律■■■。此前金价变化很好预测,即FOMC宣布加息前走低、宣布加息后走高▄■▄■。但这次由于对冲基金和ETF投资者前期更看好金价,可能是预期到美国加息周期即将终结,所以本次利率政策宣布之前金价反而上涨▓▄▓▄。原油:加息决策公布后,油价一度涨幅收窄▄▓。鲍威尔记者会开始后▓█▄■,美油WTI维持3%的日内涨幅,暂报48美元/桶上方;布伦特涨幅收窄至逾1%▄■▓,并一度转跌。特朗普多次炮轰没能阻止美联储加息在此次加息之前,特朗普开启“嘴炮模式▄▓”,多次公开“炮轰”美联储▓█。12月18日一天之内,两次通过推特向美联储“喊话”█■▄。他说,“美元非常强劲、几乎没有通胀███,周围的世界都炸窝了,巴黎在燃烧、中国在走下坡路▓▓,在这样的情况下美联储居然考虑再次加息。令人难以置信!▄■▄”没过多久他又发推文称:“希望美联储在再次做出错误决定前读读今天华尔街日报的社评。不要让市场更加缺乏流动性■■■。停止加息50个基点。感受市场,不要只看无意义的数据▄■▄■。”从12月份以来,特朗普没少在公开场合“规劝▓▄▓▄”美联储。在上周四接受福克斯新闻台采访时,特朗普说希望美联储不要再加息▄▓。他称美国几乎达到“正常化利率▓█▄■”,而经济还在“飙升”▄■▓。在上周二的路透社专访中,特朗普表示,如果美联储在下周的会议上提高利率▄▓,那将是一个“很愚蠢”的做法。而今年10月在第三次加息落地后不久▓█,特朗普便屡屡表达对美联储的不满。“我不喜欢(美联储加息)█■▄,我认为我们不必如此快地加息。”“我不希望经济放缓███,即便只是一点点,尤其是当通胀不成问题的时候。▓▓”“不喜欢74美元/桶的油价水平。”特朗普还表示除了鲍威尔▄■▄,他对其他几位美联储官员都“不太满意”,之后也表示过“有可能后悔任命鲍威尔■■■”。当被问及在何种情况下会解除鲍威尔的职务,特朗普说▄■▄■:“我不知道。我只能这样说,我对美联储非常不满▓▄▓▄,因为奥巴马(时期)有零利率。▄▓”美联储的独立性一直被视为经济稳定的重要因素▓█▄■。近几十年来,美国总统鲜少批评美联储,只有特朗普屡次对美联储“怒火相向▄■▓”,但仍未改变其渐进式加息的立场。中国央行跟不跟进▄▓?加息决议宣布后,巴林央行、阿联酋央行▓█、沙特央行纷纷追随美联储步伐,宣布加息。中国央行是否跟进█■▄?自2016年12月以来,中国央行四次跟进美联储“加息”███,最近一次是在今年三月。3月份美联储加息后,中国央行以上调逆回购操作中标利率(OMO)▓▓、中期借贷便利中标利率(MLF)的方式跟进。然而对6月和9月的加息▄■▄,中国央行均选择按兵不动,保持操作利率不变。如若12月份美国如期加息■■■,中国跟进的概率有多大?东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示:考虑到当前国内经济下行压力较大▄■▄■,监管层强调要高度重视逆周期调节,加之央行已将流动性管理目标从“合理稳定”调整为“合理充裕▓▄▓▄”,因此判断,中国央行不会跟进上调公开市场操作利率▄▓,也不会上调其他政策利率▓█▄■。 “中美两国货币政策走向分化,背后其实是两国宏观经济周期的不同步。▄■▓”中国银行国际金融研究所研究员王有鑫也认为:中国不会跟进加息。自美联储9月份加息以来▄▓,我国货币政策取向明显发生变化,受外部因素及国内实体经济压力上升的影响,货币政策趋于边际放松▓█。为了避免出现资产抛售和系统性金融风险,监管机构通过释放流动性、设立融资担保基金和信用缓释工具等手段帮助企业纾解困局█■▄。因此,目前情况下我国不具备跟随美联储加息的条件。12月19日收盘后███,中国央行在加息前夕接连发布两份公告,放出三大动作。中国央行发布消息▓▓,今日通过央行公开市场逆回购操作投放流动性600亿元,本周以来已累计投放4000亿元,保持了市场流动性合理充裕▄■▄,银行体系流动性总量上升,市场利率走势平稳。与此同时■■■,央行发布公告称,为加大对小微企业、民营企业的金融支持力度▄■▄■,决定创设定向中期借贷便利(Targeted Medium-term Lending Facility,TMLF)▓▄▓▄,根据金融机构对小微企业、民营企业贷款增长情况,向其提供长期稳定资金来源▄▓。同时▓█▄■,根据中小金融机构使用再贷款和再贴现支持小微企业、民营企业的情况,决定再增加再贷款和再贴现额度1000亿元▄■▓。中信证券固收首席明明表示:中国的货币政策必然是为本国经济服务的,不是被动的丧失独立性▄▓。美国近期市场大幅波动,美债利率大幅下降,美联储自身也面临很大压力▓█,所以我们的外部约束已经减小。中美央行博弈,人民银行选择提前公布定向降息政策█■▄,也显示了中国央行的智慧和决心,正所谓下棋抢先手,变被动为主动███,这是一步好棋。联讯证券董事总经理李奇霖表示:这是兼顾内外均衡的选择▓▓。当前中美两国在短端的利差(DR001-联邦基金利率)在20-40BP左右上下波动,美联储加息后存在倒挂的可能性。在内部宽信用与增长需要货币宽松支持的背景下▄■▄,继续降准可能会让短端下行幅度过大,不利于维系外部均衡。美联储加息计划对全球市场有何影响■■■?1.对A股有何影响?12月19日,三大指数齐跌逾1%▄■▄■。午后沪指跳水跌逾1%,创10月30日以来新低;创业板指一度跌逾2%▓▄▓▄。截至收盘,上证综指跌1.05%,报2549.56点▄▓;深证成指跌1.48%▓█▄■,报7418.69点;创业板指跌1.90%,报1268.81点▄■▓。市场普遍认为,美联储加息对A股市场的影响较为有限,不过美联储“鸽派▄▓”货币政策助将推外部环境转暖。前海开源杨德龙认为,尽管最近美股接连大跌▓█,但A股和港股并没有跟随大跌,而是小幅地调整,很明显的就是已经开始走出独立行情█■▄。如果能确认美联储明年确定结束加息周期,那么A股和港股会有超预期的表现。瑞银证券表示███,流动性收紧、美国收益率的飙升是2018年新兴市场遭遇打击的主要障碍,而美联储鸽派的立场有望为亚太市场缓解压力▓▓。但关键在于,全球经济已经开始转弱,加之全球央行仍然在回收流动性▄■▄,因此亚太市场很难出现大幅上涨的趋势,波动仍将继续。就A股而言■■■,区间震荡仍然机构的基线判断,不过外资的持续流入有望提振市场情绪。随着经济数据走弱▄■▄■,政府应会继续加码政策支持,从而保持经济运行在合理区间。华创证券认为▓▄▓▄,2019年中美经济周期共振下行阴影将牵动全球市场的神经,在“稳杠杆,再平衡▄▓”政策基调下▓█▄■,国内基本面“由破到立”值得期待。预计年初市场首先要经历汇率波动与利率趋势的再确认▄■▓;而后在投资的韧性以及房地产下行风险可控下,展开中国经济新一轮短周期企稳的反弹逻辑。A股在美联储议息会议及加息前后表现如何▄▓?今年以来,美联储召开过7次议息会议。会议召开前夕▓█,A股有6次是下跌的,下跌概率逾八成,利空冲击比较明显█■▄,议息会议结束后,美联储并没有启动加息,A股又重回原有轨道███,以上涨为主,表现出明显的强势。从历史数据来看▓▓,美联储加息对A股影响并不是十分明显,A股依然按自身规律运行。来看看历次美联储加息前后A股走势▄■▄:2.对人民币汇率的影响12月19日,人民币对美元仍在6.88附近震荡。之前离岸人民币汇率曾两度逼近“7■■■”关口,此次美联储再次加息,人民币汇率是否将继续承受较强的下行风险▄■▄■?德国商业银行亚洲高级经济师周浩认为:近期市场几乎看不到人民币走弱的空间,因此即使是美元指数被动走强▓▄▓▄,交易力量仍然推着人民币走升。至少在近几个月没有破7的可能性,因此做空意义不大▄▓,加之从技术面而言▓█▄■,50天均线、100天均线均存在压力,因此美元/人民币并没有向上走的动力▄■▓。渣打银行近期也认为:中美在G20会议上作出的承诺暂时抑制了市场对离岸人民币的悲观情绪,1年期远期隐含的离岸人民币贬值不到1%▄▓。渣打预计,美元对人民币在2019年第四季度将达到6.65。华泰证券李超发文称▓█:虽然中美货币政策差异给人民币汇率带来贬值压力,但总体影响可控。我国汇率管理当局11月初加强了在岸人民币汇率维稳操作█■▄,较大程度减弱了市场短期偏空预期。海通证券姜超团队则认为:短期来看美联储加息兑现███,人民币贬值压力短期内可能会有所缓解。但汇率最终还是决定于经济基本面,虽然国内经济短期稳定▓▓,但下行压力依然未消,资产价格仍处于高位。3.加息放缓对美股的影响对于美国股市走势▄■▄,市场情绪偏悲观。长江证券研究所宏观部负责人赵伟认为:对美股而言■■■,本轮周期受美国企业利润增速见顶回落影响,美股每股盈余(EPS)增速趋于逐步下滑。同时▄■▄■,考虑到股票回购对本轮美股EPS的贡献较大,随着减税效应衰减后海外利润回流放缓,股票回购的下降或进一步加速美股EPS回落▓▄▓▄。综合来看,美联储放缓加息节奏,较难缓解美股调整风险▄▓。澳洲安保资本基金经理纳埃米表示▓█▄■:短期美联储转为鸽派可能提振美股情绪,但是美股很可能还有10%的下跌空间明年,市场流动性变弱▄■▓、税改刺激效果下降、盈利衰退、经济见顶等因素都很难让人对美股过于乐观▄▓。目前,美国周期性板块表现落后于防御性板块 5%(主要是由于科技股的调整)▓█,而整体指数持平。如果这种板块内悲观情绪持续存在,机构预计美股波动将持续扩大█■▄,难以跑赢其他地区。另外,知名投资网站Real Investment Advice经济学家Lance Roberts今年曾撰文称███:从历史经验来看,在过去18个美联储加息周期中,美股“跪▓▓”了18次,而且每个加息周期都堪称“命途多舛”▄■▄,不是赶上经济衰退,就是遇到金融市场“溃败”■■■。(来自Real Investment Advice)4.加息计划对美元的影响?简单来说▄■▄■,加息就意味着存款和贷款利息的提高,而利率升降反映了经济的好坏。在经济蓬勃发展时期▓▄▓▄,加息意味着经济快速增长,投资回报率高,一般而言短期内对美元有利▄▓,今日加息决策公布后美元走势也证明了这一点▓█▄■。然而,某头部券商高级分析师表示:今天美联储在加息的同时释放鸽派信号▄■▓,这将标志着美国加息周期尾声的开始,以及走向经济萎缩的慢慢长路的开端。因此▄▓,进一步加息只会收紧金融环境并拖累美元。事实上,在特朗普持续对加息的炮轰下▓█,美元指数此前已连续几日走弱。美元周二最低跌至96.7,刷新12月10日以来最低水平█■▄。根据美元微笑理论,当美国经济增长格外强劲或避险需求激增时,美元的表现往往超群███。而进一步加息,只会刚好让美国经济卡在中间的位置。有分析称▓▓,目前美元的日子已经不好过了:一方面,受特朗普政策影响▄■▄,美元信用正逐步丧失,各国去美元化步伐开始加快,美元的货币储备地位渐渐失去■■■。另一方面,美国财政赤字过大,这将影响对美元抱有希望的美债买家▄■▄■,而这可能会让美元大幅贬值。正如加拿大帝国商业银行分析师所说,随着美国经济增速放缓▓▄▓▄,美国当前的政策可能对经济增长造成的巨大拖累,这种情况下,美元势将贬值▄▓。不过另外一些分析师认为▓█▄■,美元前景或许并非一片低迷。若美联储对明年货币政策紧缩路线维持相对信心,美元可以重返强势▄■▓。ACLS分析师Marshall Gittler就指出,“个人而言,我认为美联储明年会继续政策正常化▄▓,我不认为这会让美国经济步入衰退。一个就业机会多于失业人数的经济,并不需要这样的超级刺激措施▓█。这是为什么我仍看多美元的原因”。5.美债█■▄、黄金、原油等主要大类资产将受何影响?多位分析师对2019年的贵金属保持乐观情绪███,有的还认为黄金的牛市行情将会长达2-3年。一般来说,黄金走势的两个主要支撑因素将是美联储转鸽和美元走软▓▓。有分析师表明,今日美联储更为鸽派的声明将推升金价。阿伯丁标准投资企业投资策略负责人Maxwell Gold表示▄■▄:中长线看,黄金目前已经从8月份的19个月低点水平上扬接近7%,今年第四季度仍将利好黄金多头■■■,鉴于空头不断回补,黄金价格将保持弹性。而从2019年前景看▄■▄■,由于宏观经济和地缘因素的不确定,预期投资者仍将青睐这些防御型资产,黄金势必会有一番大作为▓▄▓▄。长江证券研究所宏观部负责人赵伟认为,:随着美联储放缓加息以及美国经济领先指标见顶回落▄▓,10年期美债收益率顶部已现▓█▄■。受此影响,美国实际利率中枢趋降,黄金配置价值加速凸显▄■▓。2018年以来,10年期美债收益率大幅上行,与油价持续上涨带动的通胀预期抬升高度相关▄▓。然而,随着本轮全球经济至周期尾端,以及美国原油产量趋于进一步扩张▓█、OPEC难大幅减产,中低油价或成未来常态。国际金融分析师汇鼎钟德也表示█■▄:市场对沙特的减产决心严重存疑,并且此前周一出炉的地质勘探报告已经指出美国本土原油产能增速正远超预期,而另一产油大国俄罗斯也没有决心降低原油产量的迹象███。此外,由于全球贸易局势等不确定性,2019年全球原油需求前景也持续遭到市场看淡▓▓。6.对新兴市场有何影响?或迎转机前海开源基金执行总经理杨德龙此前表示,可以确定的是美联储这轮加息周期已经接近尾声▄■▄,对于全球资本市场会有一定影响。根据历史经验,一般来说在美联储加息周期■■■,新兴市场表现都比较差,而美股表现相对较强。而对美联储有了结束加息周期的预期▄■▄■,这对新兴市场是一个重大利好,往往在美联储结束加息周期后,新兴市场会迎来转机▓▄▓▄。国际金融协会指出,随着美联储在加息问题上释放“鸽派”信号▄▓,各新兴经济体汇率由动荡逐渐趋于稳定▓█▄■,股市估值优势逐渐显现,资金正在回流中。其中巴西市场相对最被低估▄■▓,而南非市场溢价较为严重。资金流向监测机构EPFR全球数据也显示,虽然12月前两周表现不佳▄▓,新兴市场股市依然受到外资青睐。

zhong guo ji jin bao ji zhe wang ying zhang yan bei jin tian ling chen, quan qiu ying lai da xiao xi, mei lian chu nian nei di si ci jia xi luo di! mei lian chu ru qi jia xi ming nian yu qi jia xi cong san ci jiang wei liang ci bei jing shi jian 12 yue 20 ri ling chen 3 dian, mei lian chu fa bu FOMC li lv jue yi sheng ming: jiang mei guo lian bang ji jin li lv diao sheng 25 ge ji dian zhi 2. 25 2. 5 qu jian, shi xian nian nei di si ci jia xi. zhe shi mei lian chu 2015 nian 12 yue kai qi ben lun jia xi zhou qi yi lai di jiu ci jia xi, ye shi zi 1994 nian yi lai shou ci zai gu shi xia die de qing kuang xia shou jin huo bi zheng ce. mei lian chu reng jian chi ru yu qi jia xi, dan jiang di le ming nian jia xi yu qi ci shu, cong 9 yue hui yi shi de 3 ci tiao zheng wei 2 ci, yu ji 2019 nian de jing ji he tong zhang zeng su dou lue di yu ci qian yu qi. ben ci mei lian chu hui hou sheng ming yu qi you suo ruan hua, dan bing fei wan quan ge pai, reng biao shi jin yi bu jia xi shi shi he de, cheng jing ji qian jing de feng xian da zhi ping heng, jiang chao e zhun bei jin lv cong 2. 20 shang diao zhi 2. 40, wei chi mei ge yue zi chan fu zhai biao suo jian fu du zai 500 yi mei yuan bu bian. lao dong li shi chang chi xu biao xian qiang jing, jing ji huo dong qiang jing zeng zhang. jiu ye zeng zhang jin ji ge yue bao chi qiang jing, shi ye lv chu zai di wei. jia ting zhi chu ji xu qiang jing zeng zhang, er shang ye gu ding tou zi de zeng zhang yu jin nian zao xie shi hou de jiao kuai su du xiang bi you suo huan he. chang qi tong zhang yu qi zhi biao zong ti er yan ji hu wei bian. ju hua er jie jian wen fan yi, 12 yue sheng ming quan wen ru xia, kuo hao nei lan se zi ti wei ci qian 11 yue sheng ming de shuo ci, hong se wei 12 yue xin zeng huo xiu gai bu fen: 11 yue 9 yue hui yi yi lai, FOMC de dao de xin xi xian shi, lao dong li shi chang chi xu biao xian qiang jing, jing ji huo dong qiang jing zeng zhang. jiu ye zeng zhang zui jin ji ge yue ping jun bao chi qiang jing, shi ye lv chu zai di wei xia hua. jia ting zhi chu ji xu shang zhang he shang ye gu ding tou zi cong jin nian zao xie shi hou de kuai su zeng zhang hou fang huan. tong bi lai kan, zheng ti tong zhang he ti chu shi pin he neng yuan jia ge de tong zhang jie jin 2. chang qi tong zhang yu qi zhi biao zong ti er yan ji hu wei bian. yu mei lian chu fa ding zhi ze xiang yi zhi, FOMC wei yuan hui zhi zai cu jin jiu ye shui ping zui da hua he jia ge wen ding. wei yuan hui ren wei yu ji, lian bang ji jin li lv mu biao qu jian jin yi bu de yi xie some shang sheng yu jing ji huo dong de chi xu kuo zhang qiang jing de lao dong li shi chang yi ji zhong qi dui chen jie jin 2 de tong zhang mu biao xiang yi zhi. wei yuan hui ren wei, jing ji qian jing de feng xian da zhi ping heng kan lai da zhi ping heng, dan jiang ji xu guan zhu quan qiu jing ji he jin rong jin zhan, bing ping gu ta men dui jing ji qian jing de ying xiang. ji yu lao dong li shi chang huan jing he tong zhang yi you de biao xian ji wei lai de yu qi, wei yuan hui jue ding, jiang lian bang ji jin li lv de mu biao qu jian shang diao zhi wei chi zai 2. 25 2. 50 2 2. 25 . zhi yu pan duan wei lai lian bang ji jin li lv mu biao qu jian jin yi bu tiao zheng de shi jian he gui mo, wei yuan hui jiang ping gu, xiang dui yu jiu ye zui da hua mu biao he 2 de dui chen tong zhang mu biao, shi ji yu yu qi de jing ji tiao jian ru he. zai ping gu guo cheng zhong, wei yuan hui jiang kao lv ge zhong xin xi, bao kuo lao dong li shi chang huan jing de zhi biao tong zhang ya li he tong zhang yu qi zhi biao jin rong he guo ji xing shi fa zhan de shu ju deng. FOMC huo bi zheng ce hui yi zhong tou piao zan cheng zhe bao kuo: FOMC wei yuan hui zhu xi mei lian chu zhu xi bao wei er wei yuan hui fu zhu xi niu yue lian chu zhu xi wei lian mu si John Williams Vice Chairman li shi man lian chu zhu xi Thomas I. Barkin ya te lan da lian chu zhu xi Raphael W. Bostic Michelle W. Bowman mei lian chu li shi Lael Brainard wei yuan hui fu zhu xi ke la li da Richard Clarida jiu jin shan lian chu zhu xi Mary C Daly kan sa si cheng lian chu zhu xi Esther L. George ke li fu lan lian chu zhu xi Loretta J Mester he mei lian chu fu zhu xi Randal K. Quarles. ping lun: mei lian chu bing fei wan quan ge pai dui yu ci ci jia xi sheng ming: Oxford shou xi mei guo jing ji xue jia Gregory Daco ping lun cheng, FOMC de sheng ming shi" ge pai jia xi", dan mei you shi chang yu ji de na me ge pai bei lai de ce lue shi Rosenberg ye biao shi, shi chang yuan ben qi wang mei lian chu geng xian ge pai mo gen da tong quan qiu shou xi ce lue shi cheng, mei lian chu de sheng ming zong ti shang bu cuo, ge pai jia xi dui shi chang shi ji ji de gu shi de xia die fan ying de shi zhan shu jiao yi he suan fa, er bu shi qi chang qi tou zi zhan lue wai mei ping lun, mei lian chu ru qi jia xi 25 ge ji dian, dan yu ji ming nian jia xi ci shu jiang jian shao, bing an shi zai jin rong shi chang dong dang he quan qiu jing ji zeng zhang fang huan de bei jing xia, zheng ce de jin suo zhou qi zheng jie jin wei sheng. jin guan mei lian chu que shi xia diao le wei lai huan xu yao jia xi duo shao ci de yu ce, dan mei lian chu bing fei wan quan ge pai. liu ming mei lian chu guan yuan yu ji 2019 nian jia xi san ci. mei lian chu zai sheng ming zhong chong shen, yu ji hai hui jin yi bu jia xi yi xie jing ji xue jia ci qian ren wei, mei lian chu jiang cong sheng ming zhong wan quan shan chu zhe yi tiao kuan. xiang fan, mei lian chu bu chong cheng, ta" pan duan" xu yao" jin yi bu" jia xi. lue wei xia diao 2019 nian de jing ji zeng su he tong zhang yu qi tou piao jie guo xian shi, mei you ren fan dui jia xi, dan ge wei yuan de gu ji" dian zhen tu" xian shi, wei yuan zhi jian cun zai yi xie fen qi. 6 ge cheng yuan reng yu ji ming nian jiang you 3 ci jia xi, di yu 9 yue de 9 ge, dang shi guan yuan men zui hou yi ci fa bu le ta men de yu ce. chu le dui li lv de wen he gu ji, gai wei yuan hui hai lue wei xia diao le dui GDP he tong zhang de yu ce. mu qian yu ji, 2018 nian quan nian GDP jiang zeng zhang 3, jiao 9 yue xia jiang 0. 1 ge bai fen dian, 2019 nian jiang zeng zhang 2. 3, xia jiang 0. 2. bu guo, guan yuan men jiang chang qi yu gu cong 9 yue de 1. 8 shang diao zhi 1. 9. bu guo, zong de lai shuo, mei lian chu guan yuan dui jing ji zeng zhang bing bu dan xin. jin nian GDP ping jun mei ji du zeng zhang 3. 3, ya te lan da lian bang chu bei yin hang yu ji di si ji du jiang zeng zhang 2. 9. sui ran shi chang dan xin mei guo ke neng hui shou dao quan qiu jing ji fang huan de ying xiang, dan lian bang gong kai shi chang wei yuan hui de sheng ming bing mei you xian shi chu duo shao dan you. guan yuan men ji xu ba jing ji zeng zhang miao shu wei" qiang jing zeng zhang", er dui jing ji huo dong qi ta bu fen de miao shu ye bao chi bu bian. jing ji yu ce zhai yao que shi zhi chu, zheng ti tong zhang lv de zeng zhang su du yu ji jiang di yu 9 yue fen de gu ji, cong 2018 nian de 2. 1 xia hua zhi 1. 9, cong 2019 nian de 2 xia hua zhi 1. 9. chang qi yu qi reng wei 2. ci wai, 2019 nian shi ye lv yu gu zhong zhi chi ping yu 3. 5, er 2020 nian ze you 3. 5 shang diao zhi 3. 6. chang qi shi ye lv yu gu you 4. 5 xia jiang dao 4. 4 2019 nian PCE he he xin PCE tong zhang de zhong zhi yu gu fen bie xia jiang 0. 1 ge bai fen dian zhi 1. 9 he 2. bao wei er xin wen fa bu hui: mei lian chu jue ce bu shou zheng zhi kao liang ying xiang mei lian chu xuan bu nian nei di si ci jia xi hou, mei lian chu zhu xi bao wei er ju xing xin wen fa bu hui. bao wei er hai cheng, lian chu jue ce bu shou ren he zheng zhi kao liang ying xiang. lian chu guan yuan xian zai ren wei, jing ji geng you ke neng fu he ming nian jia xi liang ci de bu diao. li lv lu jing you hen gao bu que ding xing, zheng ce bu shi she ding de, wei lai shu ju jiang jue ding. mei lian chu zhu xi bao wei er xin wen fa bu hui kan dian: 1 ren men ke neng dui ru he miao shu 2019 nian FOMC huo bi zheng ce you bu tong kan fa. tong zhang qu shi rang mei lian chu zai wei lai bao chi nai xin, mei nian ju xing de ba ci huo bi zheng ce hui yi shang dou you ke neng cai qu xing dong. bu que ding xing de cheng du xiang dang gao 2 mei guo jing ji yi jing zai guo qu yi nian qiang jing zeng zhang. jing ji qu ruo di zheng ju bao kuo hai wai jing ji zeng zhang chi zhi he jin rong shi chang bo dong 3 mei guo lin jin nian di de tong zhang bi yu qi de geng jia shou yi. wo shang wei xuan bu shi xian yun chen de tong zhang mu biao 4 jin rong tiao jian shou jin. chang qi mei zhai shou yi lv xia hua yu gui bi feng xian de xing shi xiang yi zhi. guan zhu de guan jian xing feng xian bao kuo ying guo tuo ou yi da li yu ou meng tan pan yu suan. 5 bu xi wang da fu tiao zheng yin hang ye de zi ben shui ping. shi lu ru xia: jia xi hou shi chang fan ying qiang lie dao zhi 900 dian da zhen dang mei yuan zhi shu: jia xi jue ce gong bu qian, mei yuan zhi shu yin ge pai jia xi de yu qi er zou di, yi du die chao 0. 5, chu ji 10 ri di wei 96. 55 jia xi jue ce gong bu hou, mei yuan zhi shu duan xian shang yang, bi jin 97 da guan, zhi hou yi lu sheng yu 97. mei zhai: jia xi jue ce gong bu qian ban xiao shi, mei 10 nian qi guo zhai shou yi lv yi lu biao sheng, 3 dian qian chu ji dang ri zui gao dian, bao 2. 861 jia xi jue ce gong bu hou, 10 nian qi mei zhai shou yi lv tiao shui xia die, zui di bao 2. 75. mei gu: ge ye mei gu san da zhi shu ping kai hou xun su zou gao, wu pan qian jun zhang chao 1 jia xi jue ce gong bu hou, san da gu zhi jun tiao shui zou di, ci hou chi xu xia cuo. jie zhi shou pan, mei san da gu zhi xu chuang yi nian duo yi lai xin di, biao pu 500 zhi shu xia die chao 1 na si da ke zhi shu die fu yue 2 dao zhi die chao 300 dian, pan zhong zhen fu jin 900 dian. huang jin: zai jia xi jue ce gong bu qian, xian huo huang jin zhang fu kuo da zhi 0. 7 huo 8. 50 mei yuan, zui gao zhan shang 1258 mei yuan ang si, sui hou jiao tou 1252 mei yuan. COMEX2 yue huang jin qi huo zui gao zhang 0. 5, bao 1260 mei yuan ang si, sheng chuan 200 ri jun xian zhou san shou zhang 0. 2, bao 1256. 40 mei yuan ang si, chuang jin nian 7 yue yi lai shou pan xin gao. jia xi gong bu hou, xian huo huang jin die po 1250 mei yuan guan kou, zui di chu ji 1242 mei yuan. peng bo she fen xi cheng, jin jia yi jing da po le guo qu ji ci jia xi qian de bian dong gui lv. ci qian jin jia bian hua hen hao yu ce, ji FOMC xuan bu jia xi qian zou di xuan bu jia xi hou zou gao. dan zhe ci you yu dui chong ji jin he ETF tou zi zhe qian qi geng kan hao jin jia, ke neng shi yu qi dao mei guo jia xi zhou qi ji jiang zhong jie, suo yi ben ci li lv zheng ce xuan bu zhi qian jin jia fan er shang zhang. yuan you: jia xi jue ce gong bu hou, you jia yi du zhang fu shou zhai. bao wei er ji zhe hui kai shi hou, mei you WTI wei chi 3 de ri nei zhang fu, zan bao 48 mei yuan tong shang fang bu lun te zhang fu shou zhai zhi yu 1, bing yi du zhuan die. te lang pu duo ci pao hong mei neng zu zhi mei lian chu jia xi zai ci ci jia xi zhi qian, te lang pu kai qi" zui pao mo shi", duo ci gong kai" pao hong" mei lian chu. 12 yue 18 ri yi tian zhi nei, liang ci tong guo tui te xiang mei lian chu" han hua". ta shuo," mei yuan fei chang qiang jing ji hu mei you tong zhang, zhou wei de shi jie dou zha wo le, ba li zai ran shao zhong guo zai zou xia po lu, zai zhe yang de qing kuang xia mei lian chu ju ran kao lv zai ci jia xi. ling ren nan yi zhi xin!" mei guo duo jiu ta you fa tui wen cheng:" xi wang mei lian chu zai zai ci zuo chu cuo wu jue ding qian du du jin tian hua er jie ri bao de she ping. bu yao rang shi chang geng jia que fa liu dong xing. ting zhi jia xi 50 ge ji dian. gan shou shi chang, bu yao zhi kan wu yi yi de shu ju." cong 12 yue fen yi lai, te lang pu mei shao zai gong kai chang he" gui quan" mei lian chu. zai shang zhou si jie shou fu ke si xin wen tai cai fang shi, te lang pu shuo xi wang mei lian chu bu yao zai jia xi. ta cheng mei guo ji hu da dao" zheng chang hua li lv", er jing ji hai zai" biao sheng". zai shang zhou er de lu tou she zhuan fang zhong, te lang pu biao shi, ru guo mei lian chu zai xia zhou de hui yi shang ti gao li lv, na jiang shi yi ge" hen yu chun" de zuo fa. er jin nian 10 yue zai di san ci jia xi luo di hou bu jiu, te lang pu bian lv lv biao da dui mei lian chu de bu man." wo bu xi huan mei lian chu jia xi, wo ren wei wo men bu bi ru ci kuai di jia xi."" wo bu xi wang jing ji fang huan, ji bian zhi shi yi dian dian, you qi shi dang tong zhang bu cheng wen ti de shi hou."" bu xi huan 74 mei yuan tong de you jia shui ping." te lang pu hai biao shi chu le bao wei er, ta dui qi ta ji wei mei lian chu guan yuan dou" bu tai man yi", zhi hou ye biao shi guo" you ke neng hou hui ren ming bao wei er". dang bei wen ji zai he zhong qing kuang xia hui jie chu bao wei er de zhi wu, te lang pu shuo:" wo bu zhi dao. wo zhi neng zhe yang shuo, wo dui mei lian chu fei chang bu man, yin wei ao ba ma shi qi you ling li lv." mei lian chu de du li xing yi zhi bei shi wei jing ji wen ding de zhong yao yin su. jin ji shi nian lai, mei guo zong tong xian shao pi ping mei lian chu, zhi you te lang pu lv ci dui mei lian chu" nu huo xiang xiang", dan reng wei gai bian qi jian jin shi jia xi de li chang. zhong guo yang hang gen bu gen jin? jia xi jue yi xuan bu hou, ba lin yang hang a lian qiu yang hang sha te yang hang fen fen zhui sui mei lian chu bu fa, xuan bu jia xi. zhong guo yang hang shi fou gen jin? zi 2016 nian 12 yue yi lai, zhong guo yang hang si ci gen jin mei lian chu" jia xi", zui jin yi ci shi zai jin nian san yue. 3 yue fen mei lian chu jia xi hou, zhong guo yang hang yi shang diao ni hui gou cao zuo zhong biao li lv OMO zhong qi jie dai bian li zhong biao li lv MLF de fang shi gen jin. ran er dui 6 yue he 9 yue de jia xi, zhong guo yang hang jun xuan ze an bing bu dong, bao chi cao zuo li lv bu bian. ru ruo 12 yue fen mei guo ru qi jia xi, zhong guo gen jin de gai lv you duo da? dong fang jin cheng shou xi hong guan fen xi shi wang qing biao shi: kao lv dao dang qian guo nei jing ji xia xing ya li jiao da, jian guan ceng qiang diao yao gao du zhong shi ni zhou qi tiao jie, jia zhi yang hang yi jiang liu dong xing guan li mu biao cong" he li wen ding" tiao zheng wei" he li chong yu", yin ci pan duan, zhong guo yang hang bu hui gen jin shang diao gong kai shi chang cao zuo li lv, ye bu hui shang diao qi ta zheng ce li lv. " zhong mei liang guo huo bi zheng ce zou xiang fen hua, bei hou qi shi shi liang guo hong guan jing ji zhou qi de bu tong bu." zhong guo yin hang guo ji jin rong yan jiu suo yan jiu yuan wang you xin ye ren wei: zhong guo bu hui gen jin jia xi. zi mei lian chu 9 yue fen jia xi yi lai, wo guo huo bi zheng ce qu xiang ming xian fa sheng bian hua, shou wai bu yin su ji guo nei shi ti jing ji ya li shang sheng de ying xiang, huo bi zheng ce qu yu bian ji fang song. wei le bi mian chu xian zi chan pao shou he xi tong xing jin rong feng xian, jian guan ji gou tong guo shi fang liu dong xing she li rong zi dan bao ji jin he xin yong huan shi gong ju deng shou duan bang zhu qi ye shu jie kun ju. yin ci, mu qian qing kuang xia wo guo bu ju bei gen sui mei lian chu jia xi de tiao jian. 12 yue 19 ri shou pan hou, zhong guo yang hang zai jia xi qian xi jie lian fa bu liang fen gong gao, fang chu san da dong zuo. zhong guo yang hang fa bu xiao xi, jin ri tong guo yang hang gong kai shi chang ni hui gou cao zuo tou fang liu dong xing 600 yi yuan, ben zhou yi lai yi lei ji tou fang 4000 yi yuan, bao chi le shi chang liu dong xing he li chong yu, yin hang ti xi liu dong xing zong liang shang sheng, shi chang li lv zou shi ping wen. yu ci tong shi, yang hang fa bu gong gao cheng, wei jia da dui xiao wei qi ye min ying qi ye de jin rong zhi chi li du, jue ding chuang she ding xiang zhong qi jie dai bian li Targeted Mediumterm Lending Facility, TMLF, gen ju jin rong ji gou dui xiao wei qi ye min ying qi ye dai kuan zeng zhang qing kuang, xiang qi ti gong chang qi wen ding zi jin lai yuan. tong shi, gen ju zhong xiao jin rong ji gou shi yong zai dai kuan he zai tie xian zhi chi xiao wei qi ye min ying qi ye de qing kuang, jue ding zai zeng jia zai dai kuan he zai tie xian e du 1000 yi yuan. zhong xin zheng quan gu shou shou xi ming ming biao shi: zhong guo de huo bi zheng ce bi ran shi wei ben guo jing ji fu wu de, bu shi bei dong de sang shi du li xing. mei guo jin qi shi chang da fu bo dong, mei zhai li lv da fu xia jiang, mei lian chu zi shen ye mian lin hen da ya li, suo yi wo men de wai bu yue shu yi jing jian xiao. zhong mei yang hang bo yi, ren min yin hang xuan ze ti qian gong bu ding xiang jiang xi zheng ce, ye xian shi le zhong guo yang hang de zhi hui he jue xin, zheng suo wei xia qi qiang xian shou, bian bei dong wei zhu dong, zhe shi yi bu hao qi. lian xun zheng quan dong shi zong jing li li qi lin biao shi: zhe shi jian gu nei wai jun heng de xuan ze. dang qian zhong mei liang guo zai duan duan di li cha DR001 lian bang ji jin li lv zai 2040BP zuo you shang xia bo dong, mei lian chu jia xi hou cun zai dao gua de ke neng xing. zai nei bu kuan xin yong yu zeng zhang xu yao huo bi kuan song zhi chi de bei jing xia, ji xu jiang zhun ke neng hui rang duan duan xia xing fu du guo da, bu li yu wei xi wai bu jun heng. mei lian chu jia xi ji hua dui quan qiu shi chang you he ying xiang? 1. dui A gu you he ying xiang? 12 yue 19 ri, san da zhi shu qi die yu 1. wu hou hu zhi tiao shui die yu 1, chuang 10 yue 30 ri yi lai xin di chuang ye ban zhi yi du die yu 2. jie zhi shou pan, shang zheng zong zhi die 1. 05, bao 2549. 56 dian shen zheng cheng zhi die 1. 48, bao 7418. 69 dian chuang ye ban zhi die 1. 90, bao 1268. 81 dian. shi chang pu bian ren wei, mei lian chu jia xi dui A gu shi chang de ying xiang jiao wei you xian, bu guo mei lian chu" ge pai" huo bi zheng ce zhu jiang tui wai bu huan jing zhuan nuan. qian hai kai yuan yang de long ren wei, jin guan zui jin mei gu jie lian da die, dan A gu he gang gu bing mei you gen sui da die, er shi xiao fu di tiao zheng, hen ming xian de jiu shi yi jing kai shi zou chu du li hang qing. ru guo neng que ren mei lian chu ming nian que ding jie shu jia xi zhou qi, na me A gu he gang gu hui you chao yu qi de biao xian. rui yin zheng quan biao shi, liu dong xing shou jin mei guo shou yi lv de biao sheng shi 2018 nian xin xing shi chang zao yu da ji de zhu yao zhang ai, er mei lian chu ge pai de li chang you wang wei ya tai shi chang huan jie ya li. dan guan jian zai yu, quan qiu jing ji yi jing kai shi zhuan ruo, jia zhi quan qiu yang hang reng ran zai hui shou liu dong xing, yin ci ya tai shi chang hen nan chu xian da fu shang zhang de qu shi, bo dong reng jiang ji xu. jiu A gu er yan, qu jian zhen dang reng ran ji gou de ji xian pan duan, bu guo wai zi de chi xu liu ru you wang ti zhen shi chang qing xu. sui zhe jing ji shu ju zou ruo, zheng fu ying hui ji xu jia ma zheng ce zhi chi, cong er bao chi jing ji yun xing zai he li qu jian. hua chuang zheng quan ren wei, 2019 nian zhong mei jing ji zhou qi gong zhen xia xing yin ying jiang qian dong quan qiu shi chang de shen jing, zai" wen gang gan, zai ping heng" zheng ce ji diao xia, guo nei ji ben mian" you po dao li" zhi de qi dai. yu ji nian chu shi chang shou xian yao jing li hui lv bo dong yu li lv qu shi de zai que ren er hou zai tou zi de ren xing yi ji fang di chan xia xing feng xian ke kong xia, zhan kai zhong guo jing ji xin yi lun duan zhou qi qi wen de fan dan luo ji. A gu zai mei lian chu yi xi hui yi ji jia xi qian hou biao xian ru he? jin nian yi lai, mei lian chu zhao kai guo 7 ci yi xi hui yi. hui yi zhao kai qian xi, A gu you 6 ci shi xia die de, xia die gai lv yu ba cheng, li kong chong ji bi jiao ming xian, yi xi hui yi jie shu hou, mei lian chu bing mei you qi dong jia xi, A gu you chong hui yuan you gui dao, yi shang zhang wei zhu, biao xian chu ming xian de qiang shi. cong li shi shu ju lai kan, mei lian chu jia xi dui A gu ying xiang bing bu shi shi fen ming xian, A gu yi ran an zi shen gui lv yun xing. lai kan kan li ci mei lian chu jia xi qian hou A gu zou shi: 2. dui ren min bi hui lv de ying xiang 12 yue 19 ri, ren min bi dui mei yuan reng zai 6. 88 fu jin zhen dang. zhi qian li an ren min bi hui lv ceng liang du bi jin" 7" guan kou, ci ci mei lian chu zai ci jia xi, ren min bi hui lv shi fou jiang ji xu cheng shou jiao qiang de xia xing feng xian? de guo shang ye yin hang ya zhou gao ji jing ji shi zhou hao ren wei: jin qi shi chang ji hu kan bu dao ren min bi zou ruo de kong jian, yin ci ji shi shi mei yuan zhi shu bei dong zou qiang, jiao yi li liang reng ran tui zhe ren min bi zou sheng. zhi shao zai jin ji ge yue mei you po 7 de ke neng xing, yin ci zuo kong yi yi bu da, jia zhi cong ji shu mian er yan, 50 tian jun xian 100 tian jun xian jun cun zai ya li, yin ci mei yuan ren min bi bing mei you xiang shang zou de dong li. zha da yin hang jin qi ye ren wei: zhong mei zai G20 hui yi shang zuo chu de cheng nuo zan shi yi zhi le shi chang dui li an ren min bi de bei guan qing xu, 1 nian qi yuan qi yin han de li an ren min bi bian zhi bu dao 1. zha da yu ji, mei yuan dui ren min bi zai 2019 nian di si ji du jiang da dao 6. 65. hua tai zheng quan li chao fa wen cheng: sui ran zhong mei huo bi zheng ce cha yi gei ren min bi hui lv dai lai bian zhi ya li, dan zong ti ying xiang ke kong. wo guo hui lv guan li dang ju 11 yue chu jia qiang le zai an ren min bi hui lv wei wen cao zuo, jiao da cheng du jian ruo le shi chang duan qi pian kong yu qi. hai tong zheng quan jiang chao tuan dui ze ren wei: duan qi lai kan mei lian chu jia xi dui xian, ren min bi bian zhi ya li duan qi nei ke neng hui you suo huan jie. dan hui lv zui zhong hai shi jue ding yu jing ji ji ben mian, sui ran guo nei jing ji duan qi wen ding, dan xia xing ya li yi ran wei xiao, zi chan jia ge reng chu yu gao wei. 3. jia xi fang huan dui mei gu de ying xiang dui yu mei guo gu shi zou shi, shi chang qing xu pian bei guan. chang jiang zheng quan yan jiu suo hong guan bu fu ze ren zhao wei ren wei: dui mei gu er yan, ben lun zhou qi shou mei guo qi ye li run zeng su jian ding hui luo ying xiang, mei gu mei gu ying yu EPS zeng su qu yu zhu bu xia hua. tong shi, kao lv dao gu piao hui gou dui ben lun mei gu EPS de gong xian jiao da, sui zhe jian shui xiao ying shuai jian hou hai wai li run hui liu fang huan, gu piao hui gou de xia jiang huo jin yi bu jia su mei gu EPS hui luo. zong he lai kan, mei lian chu fang huan jia xi jie zou, jiao nan huan jie mei gu tiao zheng feng xian. ao zhou an bao zi ben ji jin jing li na ai mi biao shi: duan qi mei lian chu zhuan wei ge pai ke neng ti zhen mei gu qing xu, dan shi mei gu hen ke neng hai you 10 de xia die kong jian ming nian, shi chang liu dong xing bian ruo shui gai ci ji xiao guo xia jiang ying li shuai tui jing ji jian ding deng yin su dou hen nan rang ren dui mei gu guo yu le guan. mu qian, mei guo zhou qi xing ban kuai biao xian luo hou yu fang yu xing ban kuai 5 zhu yao shi you yu ke ji gu de tiao zheng, er zheng ti zhi shu chi ping. ru guo zhe zhong ban kuai nei bei guan qing xu chi xu cun zai, ji gou yu ji mei gu bo dong jiang chi xu kuo da, nan yi pao ying qi ta di qu. ling wai, zhi ming tou zi wang zhan Real Investment Advice jing ji xue jia Lance Roberts jin nian ceng zhuan wen cheng: cong li shi jing yan lai kan, zai guo qu 18 ge mei lian chu jia xi zhou qi zhong, mei gu" gui" le 18 ci, er qie mei ge jia xi zhou qi dou kan cheng" ming tu duo chuan", bu shi gan shang jing ji shuai tui, jiu shi yu dao jin rong shi chang" kui bai". lai zi Real Investment Advice 4. jia xi ji hua dui mei yuan de ying xiang? jian dan lai shuo, jia xi jiu yi wei zhe cun kuan he dai kuan li xi de ti gao, er li lv sheng jiang fan ying le jing ji de hao huai. zai jing ji peng bo fa zhan shi qi, jia xi yi wei zhe jing ji kuai su zeng zhang, tou zi hui bao lv gao, yi ban er yan duan qi nei dui mei yuan you li, jin ri jia xi jue ce gong bu hou mei yuan zou shi ye zheng ming liao zhe yi dian. ran er, mou tou bu quan shang gao ji fen xi shi biao shi: jin tian mei lian chu zai jia xi de tong shi shi fang ge pai xin hao, zhe jiang biao zhi zhe mei guo jia xi zhou qi wei sheng de kai shi, yi ji zou xiang jing ji wei suo de man man chang lu de kai duan. yin ci, jin yi bu jia xi zhi hui shou jin jin rong huan jing bing tuo lei mei yuan. shi shi shang, zai te lang pu chi xu dui jia xi de pao hong xia, mei yuan zhi shu ci qian yi lian xu ji ri zou ruo. mei yuan zhou er zui di die zhi 96. 7, shua xin 12 yue 10 ri yi lai zui di shui ping. gen ju mei yuan wei xiao li lun, dang mei guo jing ji zeng zhang ge wai qiang jing huo bi xian xu qiu ji zeng shi, mei yuan de biao xian wang wang chao qun. er jin yi bu jia xi, zhi hui gang hao rang mei guo jing ji ka zai zhong jian de wei zhi. you fen xi cheng, mu qian mei yuan de ri zi yi jing bu hao guo le: yi fang mian, shou te lang pu zheng ce ying xiang, mei yuan xin yong zheng zhu bu sang shi, ge guo qu mei yuan hua bu fa kai shi jia kuai, mei yuan de huo bi chu bei di wei jian jian shi qu. ling yi fang mian, mei guo cai zheng chi zi guo da, zhe jiang ying xiang dui mei yuan bao you xi wang de mei zhai mai jia, er zhe ke neng hui rang mei yuan da fu bian zhi. zheng ru jia na da di guo shang ye yin hang fen xi shi suo shuo, sui zhe mei guo jing ji zeng su fang huan, mei guo dang qian de zheng ce ke neng dui jing ji zeng zhang zao cheng de ju da tuo lei, zhe zhong qing kuang xia, mei yuan shi jiang bian zhi. bu guo ling wai yi xie fen xi shi ren wei, mei yuan qian jing huo xu bing fei yi pian di mi. ruo mei lian chu dui ming nian huo bi zheng ce jin suo lu xian wei chi xiang dui xin xin, mei yuan ke yi chong fan qiang shi. ACLS fen xi shi Marshall Gittler jiu zhi chu," ge ren er yan, wo ren wei mei lian chu ming nian hui ji xu zheng ce zheng chang hua, wo bu ren wei zhe hui rang mei guo jing ji bu ru shuai tui. yi ge jiu ye ji hui duo yu shi ye ren shu de jing ji, bing bu xu yao zhe yang de chao ji ci ji cuo shi. zhe shi wei shen me wo reng kan duo mei yuan de yuan yin". 5. mei zhai huang jin yuan you deng zhu yao da lei zi chan jiang shou he ying xiang? duo wei fen xi shi dui 2019 nian de gui jin shu bao chi le guan qing xu, you de hai ren wei huang jin de niu shi hang qing jiang hui chang da 23 nian. yi ban lai shuo, huang jin zou shi de liang ge zhu yao zhi cheng yin su jiang shi mei lian chu zhuan ge he mei yuan zou ruan. you fen xi shi biao ming, jin ri mei lian chu geng wei ge pai de sheng ming jiang tui sheng jin jia. a bo ding biao zhun tou zi qi ye tou zi ce lue fu ze ren Maxwell Gold biao shi: zhong chang xian kan, huang jin mu qian yi jing cong 8 yue fen de 19 ge yue di dian shui ping shang yang jie jin 7, jin nian di si ji du reng jiang li hao huang jin duo tou, jian yu kong tou bu duan hui bu, huang jin jia ge jiang bao chi tan xing. er cong 2019 nian qian jing kan, you yu hong guan jing ji he di yuan yin su de bu que ding, yu qi tou zi zhe reng jiang qing lai zhei xie fang yu xing zi chan, huang jin shi bi hui you yi fan da zuo wei. chang jiang zheng quan yan jiu suo hong guan bu fu ze ren zhao wei ren wei,: sui zhe mei lian chu fang huan jia xi yi ji mei guo jing ji ling xian zhi biao jian ding hui luo, 10 nian qi mei zhai shou yi lv ding bu yi xian. shou ci ying xiang, mei guo shi ji li lv zhong shu qu jiang, huang jin pei zhi jia zhi jia su tu xian. 2018 nian yi lai, 10 nian qi mei zhai shou yi lv da fu shang xing, yu you jia chi xu shang zhang dai dong de tong zhang yu qi tai sheng gao du xiang guan. ran er, sui zhe ben lun quan qiu jing ji zhi zhou qi wei duan, yi ji mei guo yuan you chan liang qu yu jin yi bu kuo zhang OPEC nan da fu jian chan, zhong di you jia huo cheng wei lai chang tai. guo ji jin rong fen xi shi hui ding zhong de ye biao shi: shi chang dui sha te de jian chan jue xin yan zhong cun yi, bing qie ci qian zhou yi chu lu de di zhi kan tan bao gao yi jing zhi chu mei guo ben tu yuan you chan neng zeng su zheng yuan chao yu qi, er ling yi chan you da guo e luo si ye mei you jue xin jiang di yuan you chan liang de ji xiang. ci wai, you yu quan qiu mao yi ju shi deng bu que ding xing, 2019 nian quan qiu yuan you xu qiu qian jing ye chi xu zao dao shi chang kan dan. 6. dui xin xing shi chang you he ying xiang? huo ying zhuan ji qian hai kai yuan ji jin zhi xing zong jing li yang de long ci qian biao shi, ke yi que ding de shi mei lian chu zhe lun jia xi zhou qi yi jing jie jin wei sheng, dui yu quan qiu zi ben shi chang hui you yi ding ying xiang. gen ju li shi jing yan, yi ban lai shuo zai mei lian chu jia xi zhou qi, xin xing shi chang biao xian dou bi jiao cha, er mei gu biao xian xiang dui jiao qiang. er dui mei lian chu you liao jie shu jia xi zhou qi de yu qi, zhe dui xin xing shi chang shi yi ge zhong da li hao, wang wang zai mei lian chu jie shu jia xi zhou qi hou, xin xing shi chang hui ying lai zhuan ji. guo ji jin rong xie hui zhi chu, sui zhe mei lian chu zai jia xi wen ti shang shi fang" ge pai" xin hao, ge xin xing jing ji ti hui lv you dong dang zhu jian qu yu wen ding, gu shi gu zhi you shi zhu jian xian xian, zi jin zheng zai hui liu zhong. qi zhong ba xi shi chang xiang dui zui bei di gu, er nan fei shi chang yi jia jiao wei yan zhong. zi jin liu xiang jian ce ji gou EPFR quan qiu shu ju ye xian shi, sui ran 12 yue qian liang zhou biao xian bu jia, xin xing shi chang gu shi yi ran shou dao wai zi qing lai.

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中央监察组“回首”,谴责虚假敷衍形象

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